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Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda.

Identifieur interne : 001296 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001295; suivant : 001297

Predicting the Impact of COVID-19 and the Potential Impact of the Public Health Response on Disease Burden in Uganda.

Auteurs : David Bell [États-Unis] ; Kristian Schultz Hansen [Danemark] ; Agnes N. Kiragga [Ouganda] ; Andrew Kambugu [Ouganda] ; John Kissa [Ouganda] ; Anthony K. Mbonye [Ouganda]

Source :

RBID : pubmed:32705975

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic and public health "lockdown" responses in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, are now widely reported. Although the impact of COVID-19 on African populations has been relatively light, it is feared that redirecting focus and prioritization of health systems to fight COVID-19 may have an impact on access to non-COVID-19 diseases. We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and non-African countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. We then predicted the impact of possible scenarios of the COVID-19 public health response on morbidity and mortality for HIV/AIDS, malaria, and maternal health in Uganda. Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden compared with an equivalent transmission in comparison countries, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for an equivalent transmission in Italy. By contrast, scenarios of the impact of the public health response on malaria and HIV/AIDS predict additional disease burdens outweighing that predicted from extensive SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Emerging disease data from Uganda suggest that such deterioration may already be occurring. The results predict a relatively low COVID-19 impact on Uganda associated with its young population, with a high risk of negative impact on non-COVID-19 disease burden from a prolonged lockdown response. This may reverse hard-won gains in addressing fundamental vulnerabilities in women and children's health, and underlines the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and local disease vulnerabilities.

DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.20-0546
PubMed: 32705975
PubMed Central: PMC7470592


Affiliations:


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Le document en format XML

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